Thursday, January 26, 2012
Regular readers of this blog may feel I am obsessed with New Gingrich but his being nominated by the Republican party is one of the biggest hopes Obama has of getting a second term and that scares me !
Click on the title for a link to Larry Sabato's state by state analysis of a electoral win by Obama if Newt his our nominee. I love his color coded maps of the states. In the past I have found Sabato one of the best. He is the head of the University of Virgina's Center for Politics and is a very frequent guest on Fox News with is political analysis.
It takes 270 electoral votes to win the Presidency
If Newt Gingrich it the Republican nominee Sabato predicts Obama would win between 303 to 357 electoral votes in a landslide.
If a generic Republican (and Mitt Romney is about as generic as it gets) were the nominee of the Republican party the Republican would have 206 projected electoral votes with 85 a tossup. Obama would be short of election at 246. The tossups Romney would have to pick up to win are Ohio, Virgina, Florida and New Hampshire which would give him 270 and the Presidency. He also has a chance in Nevada, Colorado, Iowa and I believe in Pennsylvania and/or Wisconsin for cush.
Sabato's maps are much better at explaining this visually so click on the title for a look.