For the last 24 hours I have been mulling around a theory that Mitt Romney should do well in Florida if not win. Today I received support for my theory from a Rasmussen Poll from Florida that shows the following: Romney 25%, McCain 20% and Giuliani 19%.
In all the Primaries to date McCain has not had serious competition for the vote of the Liberal to Moderate wing of the Republican party and has in fact received a lot of support from Independents. Independence's can not vote in the Florida Republican primary. In addition he and Giuliani will now be dividing up the Liberal to Moderate Republican vote. On the other hand, in this essentially three man, race Mitt Romney is alone in competing for Conservative Republicans. Yes, I know McCain has a fairly conservative voting record but most conservatives, moderate to hard core, can not forgive McCain for his championship of "campaign finance reform" ( limitations on free speech) and "amnesty" for ILLEGAL immigrants. He also is not a "team player." Up until Florida Romney has had to share the fractured conservative vote with Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee. For all essentially purposes Thompson and Huckabee have no chance to win the nominations so I forecast that most conservative Republicans in Florida will rally to Mitt Romney as the last Conservative to have a chance of winning the nomination. Since there are more Conservatives than Liberals in the Republican party in Florida this would be a state Romney will win. The only fly in the ointment as to my theory is if McCain can convince the Republicans that he has the best chance of beating Hillery and that could trump everything.
(To view the detailed results of the Rasmussen poll chick on the title for a link)
