Tomorrow is the Michigan Primary. The Democratic party has penalized Michigan for moving up it's primary date and so there is no real contest in the Democratic party as Michigan has been stripped of all its delegates for the Democratic Convention. There is a spited primary for the Republicans and several Republican candidates have a lot at stake.
McCain Due to a quirk in Michigan State Law, Independents and Democrats can vote in the Republican Primary. John McCain won here in 2000 against George W Bush when a lot of Democrats and Independents voted in the Republican primary. McCain needs to keep his momentum up from his win in New Hampshire. However,this year he may not be able to count on those Democrats who now may want to vote for Romney or Huckabee because they see them as the weakest candidates for the Republicans. The independents should still be in McCain's camp; but, if he can't win here, where he can get help from independents, where can he win? After Michigan there are fewer primaries where independents can vote in the Republican primary.This is an important state for McCain. If he wins here he can then use it to boost him into a win in South Carolina and Florida. A loss would be a big blow. The main stream media like McCain but if he wins or becomes a front runner they will turn on him.
Romney This is where Romney grew up. His father George Romney was governor. This is a very important primary for him. Mitt, yesterday said he would go on through "Super Tuesday" on February 5 (23 primaries) regardless but the media expectation game makes this very important for Romney. I still think he can continue with some chance of ultimately winning the nomination with a loss in Michigan by picking up delegates as long as it stays a 4 or 5 man race. He should do well in Nevada, 4 days later, next Saturday, due to the large Mormon population there. Quite frankly I have been puzzled by Romney's lack of success to date. He has stood out in the debates and is a well spoken candidate. If I were casting a movie for President he would get the part. He looks like my idea of a President of the United States. However, one commentator said yesterday that Romney's problem is he looks like "a rich guy", which he is . The mainstream media hate him because he was a moderate who has become more conservative. That is unforgivable to the media.
Huckabee The Democrats may also cross over to vote for this guy because they think he would be easy to beat in November and they would be right. "Gomer Pyle" is very glib and folksy. He can sustain a 2nd or 3rd place finish in Michigan if he can win in South Carolina 4 days later. A loss in both Michigan and South Carolina would probable end his boomlet caused by his win in the Iowa caucuses. A win in Michigan could lead to a win in South Carolina and would give him a good chance of becoming a strong regional candidate on "Super Tuesday."
At this point, unless one candidate wins the majority of the remaining primaries before "Super Tuesday" ( Michigan, South Carolina, Nevada and Florida) "Super Tuesday" may result in "mixed results" which could lead to a contested convention in Minneapolis this summer. After "Super Tuesday" the candidate that remain viable , and there could be at least three or four, will be scraping for every delegate and the delegate search will begin. Too much fun!
