Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Republican Road to the Minneapolis Convention



In the post below I predicted there very well could be a contested Republican Convention in Minneapolis this summer where no candidate has enough delegates to win on the first ballot or at the least the nomination would be in doubt up until the first ballot. This is how it could develop. Below are the scheduled primaries and my projections of who will win each.


Jan. 3
Iowa- Huckabee (already won)

Jan. 5
Wyoming caucuses (R)- Romney (already won)

Jan. 8
New Hampshire -McCain (already won)

Jan. 15
Michigan - McCain (Update: Romney Wins, McCain 2nd)

Jan. 19
Nevada- Romney (Update: Romney Wins)
South Carolina (R)- Huckabee (Update: McCain Wins)

Jan. 29
Florida- Giuliani

Feb. 1
Maine (R)- McCain

Feb. 5 (Super Tuesday)
Alabama- Huckabee
Alaska- Romney
Arizona- McCain
Arkansas- Huckabee
California- Giuliani
Colorado-Romney
Connecticut-McCain
Delaware-Giuliani
Georgia- Huckabee

Illinois- Giuliani

Massachusetts- Romney
Minnesota-McCain
Missouri-Huckabee
New Jersey- Giuliani

New York- Giuliani
North Dakota- Huckabee
Oklahoma- Huckabee
Tennessee Thompson (if he is still in)
Utah- Romney, an easy one

Feb. 9
Louisiana - Huckabee
Kansas (R)- Huckabee

Feb. 12
District of Columbia- Giuliani
Maryland- Giuliani
Virginia- McCain

Feb. 19

Washington- Giuliani
Wisconsin- McCain

March 4
Ohio- Giuliani
Rhode Island- McCain
Texas-Huckabee
Vermont- McCain

March 11
Mississippi- Huckabee

April 22
Pennsylvania- Giuliani

May 6
Indiana- Romney
North Carolina- Huckabee

May 13
Nebraska- Huckabee
West Virginia- Giuliani

May 20
Kentucky- Huckabee
Oregon- Giuliani

May 27
Idaho (R)- Romney

June 3
Montana- Romney
New Mexico (R)- Romney
South Dakota- Huckabee

Under this scenario Huckabee and Giuliani would each control 1/3 of the delegates each and Romney and McCain would control the other 1/3. There may be some "deals" as to the VP choice.

If there is no clear winner coming out of Super Tuesday ( February 5th) then each candidate will be scraping for every delegate from then until the convention and I will start my delegate count on this blog. By clicking on the title above there is a link to the Greenpapers.com which has a running total on delegates for each candidate. Also work your way through the site for a plethora of information only a political junkie could love.

Republican Debate from South Carolina tomorrw night (9 pm EST- 6 pm PST) on FOX NEWS!